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— NCES released in January, 2013, their “provisional data” on the 2009-2010 graduates and dropouts.

• NCES estimates that 78.2% of 2006-2007 9^th graders graduated in four years in 2010.
• By race/ethnic group, the estimated rates are:
  • 93.5% for Asian/Pacific islander students
  • 83.0 % for white students
  • 71.4% for Hispanic students
  • 69.1 % for American Indian/Alaska native students
  • 66.1 % for black students
• A comparison to the prior school year, 2008–09, shows a percentage point or greater increase for 38 states.  Only the District of Columbia decreased by more than a percentage point.
• A total of 514,238 public school students dropped out of grades 9–12, resulting in a calculated overall event dropout rate of 3.4% in 2009–10.  New Hampshire and Idaho had the lowest event dropout rates at 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.  Mississippi and Arizona had the highest at 7.4 and 7.8 percent, respectively.  The median state dropout rate was 3.4%.
• The dropout rates increased as grade-level increased.  The lowest dropout rate was for grade 9 (2.6%).  The highest dropout rate was for grade 12 (5.1%).
• The dropout rate for each race/ethnic group was:
  • 1.9% for Asian/Pacific islander students
  • 2.3% for white students
  • 5.0% for Hispanic students
  • 5.5% black
  • 6.7% for American Indian/Alaska native
  • Across the United States the dropout rate was higher for males (3.8%) than for females (2.9%), respectively. The dropout rate was higher among males in every state.

 

The full report is at http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2013309.

We characterize the graduation rates as estimates because NCES employs their Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR), which averages 8^th, 9^th, and 10^th grade enrollment as the denominator for the number of graduates four years later.  Their studies have confirmed that this is the closest estimate to actually following a cohort of 9^th graders through graduation.

 

Comparisons between high school event dropout rates across school years within states showed significant fluctuations.  Some examples of annual changes from 2008-09 to 2009-10: 11.5% to 2.9% (75% fewer dropouts), 4.2% to 7.4% (76% more dropouts), and 1.1% to 6.0% (445% more dropouts).  Clearly this is not yet a stable indicator for some states.

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